What if PAK sells P-O-K to China? Will Pakistan Lease Part of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir to China?

Inaugural Speech by Mr. Richard Allen - Thank you ladies and gentlemen for inviting me to this very important forum. I had been in Singapore for a week with Rees and other stalwarts involving strategic discussions on South-East (SE) Asia. This association comes in handy to me as back home I will be tabling this to Senator Woolbridge.

Well yes, as Rees has briefed me, the stalemate in discussions between you gentlemen is fathomable and at the same time is an offshoot of getting extraordinarily mired in allegations and counter-allegations from our friends in India, China and Pakistan. A disquiet is felt at White House and I would urge each one of you to speak freely and without any inhibitions. I assure you the billions are securely parked and does not go anywhere!

Everyone laughed, the banter was light and set the mood for an important round of discussions.

Mr. Christopher - Rees Lee invites Mr. Naresh Kumar of India to the podium.

Naresh Kumar: Thank you ladies and gentlemen for this invite. I thank Rees for taking out his valuable time to organise this event. I also thank Avik, Mr. Zhong, Mr. Du, Mr. Gul, Mr. Rehman and Mr. Allen for making it happen.

On an honest note, I will speak freely and that is what is required at the moment. I will start with the different corridors, silk routes – maritime and road – that has evolved in the past nine years (as can be seen as Figure-1 on the big screen). These routes are initiatives taken by China to assure safe passage of its crude oil and other energy and non-energy requirements.

Though I would not say it as a grudge, but alarming. Beijing’s growing collaboration with India’s neighbours has created a sense of unease in New Delhi. Like any rising power with global ambitions, China is looking to expand its presence and increase its profile beyond its immediate neighbourhood. Naturally, as China’s influence in South Asia grows, India is faced with the challenge of managing its relationship with its biggest neighbour and competing to maintain its prominence in the region.

Let me reiterate, India has begun to view China’s commercial initiatives as a means to advance its strategic ambitions in ways that often are not conducive to India’s interests. Govt. of India noted in 2016 that the interactive dynamic between strategic interests and connectivity initiatives – a universal proposition – is on particular display in our continent. Caution is needed against countries using connectivity as an exercise in hard-wiring that influences choices. The view that connectivity offers a set of tools to influence other countries’ foreign policy choices has become commonplace in analysis about the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI has garnered much attention, positive and negative, since its inception in 2013. It is one of the world’s biggest initiatives for promoting connectivity and providing funds to finance infrastructure development.

This development means a growing Sino-Indian competition in the subcontinent, in the Indian Ocean region.

In its strongest stance on the BRI to date, India marked its protest by not attending the Belt and Road Forum that China hosted in May 2017. In official statements, India questioned the initiative’s transparency and processes, and New Delhi opposed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) due to concerns about territorial sovereignty. As India calibrates its policy response, instead of perceiving the BRI as one project, it would be wise to look at the initiative as a culmination of various bilateral initiatives, many of them involving projects that were actually initiated before the BRI itself was formally launched.

If you can see the above infograph China imports huge amounts of crude oil from countries across the world. The top six countries alone export around USD 151 billion worth of oil. As the blue and black lines in the topmost map show the passage of oil transportation encumbers practically the whole of globe and the involvement of China is almost in every country that matters except USA, Australia and India – this can be seen in the second map. Obviously, the oil routes involve circumventing India waters, namely the Indian Ocean. The routes also touch Africa and Sri Lanka. New Delhi gathers that China in order to avoid treading India waters - it certainly looks down upon India as less economically and militarily strong – and in a major shift, has touched Pakistan to reach out an alternate route to Beijing which reduces the travel path to a great degree and also induces an avenue to placate Islamabad to rebuild business policies ending up with a win-win situation for China and for Pakistan!

The construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a milestone that signifies this shift.

At its tip, the CPEC is a large-scale initiative to build energy, highway and port infrastructure to deepen economic connections between the two countries.

The Govt. of Pakistan has received this initiative with open arms.

Rees observed quiet and unease in the Hall.

No doubt China convinced Islamabad to lend its port Gwadar located in Pakistan, Baluchistan. Consignments would be unloaded at port of Gwadar and travel to Kashgar – into China. Although Gwadar was not part of Maritime Silk Route initiated by China but inclusion in its Belt and Road Initiative raised a lot of questions globally - I think everybody knows Gwadar merged into Pakistan in 1958. Its proximity to Chabahar port in Iran is an interesting point to ponder!

We anticipate Pakistan is eager handing full control of the green line Gwadar to Kashgar (in above map) to China?

I would end here and would request Avik to take it forward after the sessions of Mr. Zhong and Mr. Gul. Thank you.

Christopher - Rees Lee:Thank you Mr. Kumar. I now invite Mr. Shen Zhong to the podium to express his views.

Shen Zhong: Thanks Mr. Lee. Thank you, Mr. Kumar, for an exceptional brief on CPEC. I would like to go back to an era when BRI was nascent and when the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was formed.

As of 2015, China announced that over one trillion yuan (USD 160 billion) of infrastructure-related projects were in planning or construction stage to be overseen by AIIB.

The primary goals of AIIB were to address the expanding infrastructure needs across Asia, enhance regional integration, promote economic development and improve public access to social services.

The Articles of Agreement (the legal framework) of AIIB were signed in Beijing on 29 June 2015. The proposed Bank had an authorized capital of USD 100 billion, 75% of which was planned for Asia and Oceania. China had been the single largest stakeholder, holding 27% of voting rights. The Board of Governors was the decision-making body. The Bank started operation on 16 January 2016, and began approving Projects forthwith.

India also, for its different infrastructure projects, sourced from AIIB USD 3869 million from 2017 through 2020 (below chart).

Gentlemen, we have supported countries across the globe through AIIB and the developments have taken place to the complete satisfaction of the respective governments.

Beijing understands that India is not opposed to infrastructure development in the region, but it is concerned about the strategic implications of certain Chinese-led initiatives. A primary concern for New Delhi is that Beijing will use its economic presence in the region to advance its strategic interests - a notable example is the strategically located port of Hambantota, which the Sri Lankan government leased to China for ninety-nine years in 2017. The port was built using Chinese loans but, due to the high interest rates, Sri Lanka was unable to repay and incurred a burgeoning debt burden.

Fine, we never urged Colombo to honour the payment timeline, rather we appreciated their difficulties.

If you can see from the first map the maritime road has been elaborately drawn - it runs with its links from the Chinese coast to the south via Hanoi to Jakarta, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur through the Strait of Malacca via the Sri Lankan Colombo opposite the southern tip of India via Male, the capital of the Maldives, to the East African Mombasa, from there to Djibouti, then through the Red Sea over the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, there via Haifa, Istanbul and Athens to the Upper Adriatic to the northern Italian junction of Trieste with its international free port and its rail connections to Central Europe and the North Sea.

If we connect Gwadar to Kashgar we save money. I think India’s concern is understandable keeping POK in mind.

I would not go further. Now I request Mr. Christopher - Rees Lee to take the podium. Thank You.

Christopher - Rees Lee: Thank you Mr. Zhong. I now invite Mr. Shahnaz Gul to the podium to express his views.

Shahnaz Gul:Thank you everyone. Thank you, Rees, for inviting me to this event. I also thank Mr. Zhong, Mr. Kumar, rest of the dignitaries and Mr. Allen.

Being the third speaker has many advantages. Much has been spoken by Mr. Kumar and Mr. Zhong. I feel the Belt and Road Initiative and the Maritime Silk Route has its advantages and disadvantages. I do not see much of disadvantage on an economic platform – as beautifully described by Mr. Zhong – but there are ecological issues which we must address.

The Belt and Road initiative has attracted attention and concern from environmental organizations. A joint report by the World Wide Fund for Nature argued that the BRI presents significant risks as well as opportunities for sustainable development. These risks include the overuse of natural resources, the disruption of ecosystems, and the emission of pollutants. Coal-fired power stations, such as Emba Hunutlu power station in Turkey, is built as part of BRI, thus increasing greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Glacier melting as a result of excess greenhouse gas emissions, endangered species preservation, desertification and soil erosion as a result of overgrazing and over farming, mining practices, water resource management, and air and water pollution are some of the ongoing concerns as they relate to Central Asian nations. There is a committee overseeing this and I am sure we all can contribute to reduce the effects of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions.

Coming back to Pakistan, Port Gwadar is developing into one of the biggest and modern sea ports in Pakistan Baluchistan area and our friends in South East Asia would be very pleased regarding the development of the port.

I am sure this forum discussion will open more avenues for inter nation collaboration and I am confident we can sort out the issues that are presently in front of us.

On a sweet note, I come to an end of discussions and leave the dais to Mr. Christopher - Rees Lee to summarize.

Christopher - Rees Lee: Thank you Mr. Gul. What I understand Mr. Avik Mitra has sent me a note – he wants to speak on the Gwadar - Kashgar developments. Welcome Mr. Mitra to the podium.

Avik Mitra: Thank you Rees for accommodating me quickly and as lot has been discussed I would not take much time.

To start with I congratulate China for AIIB initiatives and that India has also benefitted from it is everybody to see. On the surface it looks very good, rather China has won accolades for its friendly stand towards nations that have not been able to pay debts in time. The Rhodium Group, an American research company, analyzed Chinese debt negotiations and concluded that China's leverage in them are often exaggerated and realistically limited in power. The findings of their study frequently showed an outcome in favor of the borrower rather than the supposedly predatory Chinese lender. The firm found that asset seizures are a very rare occurrence and that instead debt write-off was the most common outcome. A 2020 Lowy Institute article called Sri Lanka's Hambantota International Port the case par excellence for China's debt-trap diplomacy, but called the narrative a myth because the project was proposed by former Sri Lankan president, not Beijing. The article added that Sri Lanka's debt distress was not caused by Chinese lending, but by excessive borrowing on Western-dominated capital markets.

I sincerely urge Islamabad to look at the ongoing proceedings on the Gwadar – Kashgar line and do not allow the good intentions of India on CPEC to turn into a rift. The economically weak nations working on BRI should realize that leasing out a certain section of land to China might ease the debt burden in the short term but the global ramifications out of this would be difficult to handle in the long term! I am confident good sense will prevail and BRI and AIIB would continue to reap rich dividends from the initiative.

Alternatively, if China aids Islamabad militarily in the Indian Ocean Region – which I am on a direct watch – I would strongly suggest and expect a rebuff from New Delhi. We would never allow any covert or overt military preparations under the garb of CPEC or Maritime Silk Route either by Beijing or by Islamabad. Or by any leadership that matters. I sincerely hope, and am confident, Rees and Richard would agree with me!

Thank You.

Everybody rose to their feet and applauded Avik Mitra’s positive and yet aggressive take on BRI and CPEC, though it was a bit different from what Naresh Kumar had propositioned but, in the end, everybody realized it is what that was needed in such an important platform – powerful unbiased opinions. Mr. Wong Du and Mr. Abur Rehman remarked - they had nothing more to discuss, Mr. Richard Allen also nodded in appreciation!!

Christopher - Rees Lee: Thank you gentlemen, I never had an inkling this forum would be able to settle so many misgivings - and how! I was speaking to Richard and he told me the agenda was a tricky one and needed a lot of expertise to handle it. I am sure you all will go back and attend office in right earnest and I am mailing the deliberations to the leaderships of all the nations, 146 countries and international organisations, involved in BRI – it will help them. Will really do.

The dinner and cocktail are arranged at the Central Hall. Let us assemble at 8 pm sharp. Thank you once again.

About Author:

Jayant Banerjee has been working as a business manager for the last 32 years. Also played cricket at a very competitive level. He is very well read and is known for incisive writing from his early days.

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Disclaimer: The names Richard Allen, Christopher - Rees Lee, Naresh Kumar, Avik Mitra, Shen Zhong, Wong Du, Shahnaz Gul and Abur Rehman are imaginary and do not have any resemblance to any person(s) dead or alive.