The world came crashing down on us when Covid-19 spewed venom on countries breaking many economies and finished many lives. Survival was measured on a daily basis. It peaked in 2021 timeline and when the whole world began to heave a sigh of relief that the monster is gone a new variant took its place and started wreaking havoc - bent on finishing mankind.
In came Omicron - a variant of SARS-CoV-2 (Corona virus) which first reported to World Health Organisation (WHO) by the Network of Genomics Surveillance in South Africa on 24 Nov 2021. First detected in Botswana, this SARS variant had the reputation to spread more easily than earlier ones including the Delta variant.
Omicron infects the upper airways more than the lungs which could explain the different symptoms displayed by the patients.
Sadly, this variety infected children and the younger generation more as they are affected by upper respiratory tract infections due to smaller nasal passages.
Omicron spread was out with its new variants BA.1, BA.2, BA.4, BA.5. Different variants were seen in different countries - while United Kingdom (UK) witnessed the BA.1 variant, USA had to deal with variant BA.5.
WHO quickly rolled out vaccines and UK was the first country to approve “bivalent” vaccines which is based on BA.1 lineage and the SARS-CoV-2 sequence coming out of Wuhan, China. India’s vaccine administration was startingly effective as it quickly went about producing vaccines for BA.4 and BA.5 variants. The vaccines were manufactured in huge volumes to enable other countries – who were not getting the vaccines from anywhere - get quick relief. India was one of those countries who managed the Omicron outbreak better and went about creating a gold standard in vaccine management.
During March’21 India contributed only 0.21% of the global Omicron cases and by December India had completed 90.8% of first vaccination and 65.4% of its second vaccination outreach.
Quite a feat though it is hard to measure success when the chain of population across the globe is so long!!
Though Omicron variants and sub variants loom large on our lives the pandemic nature has significantly abated with global daily cases declining from 1.2 million in early April to 7,38,000 at the end of June. The decline has been much more significant in Developing Asia which saw daily new cases fall from 3,84,000 to 82,000 between April to June (Fig-1). This significant decline coupled with continued progress on vaccination (Fig-2) has allowed many economies to ease restrictions and allow business to function.
We can see that the only exception here is People Republic of China which has declined to ease business without zero Covid achievements.
China adhered to zero Covid manifesto and its failure to arrest renewed outbreak in early 2022 triggered fresh lockdowns. Figure-3 below shows how China is lagging behind the rest of developing Asia in allowing business to flourish.
The Stringency Index as developed by Economic Forums measuring ease of business shows a sharp decline in case of developing Asia as compared to China. Low index signifies developing Asia being less stringent in posing restrictions that could hamper business.
Business Activity Increases after easing restrictions – the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI):
Below table shows the PMI levels of developing Asia pointing renewed activity in many economies as they expanded and getting the confidence that Omicron is finally on the wane. China continues to be gloomy as fresh spurts have emerged.
What is PMI? – Purchasing Manager’s Index is an index of the direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It summarises whether market conditions as viewed by purchasing managers are expanding, staying the same or contracting. The headline PMI is a number 1 to 100. A PMI above 50 represents an expansion in business as compared to previous month. A PMI under 50 represents contraction and a reading of 50 represents no change.
Summing up the different graphs and figures show that the effect of Omicron with all its variants are weakening and the PMI’s are a very healthy indication that business has gained momentum and we are exuberant seeing Omicron going away,
though China is a point everyone should remember and be on the alert - always.
Note: The figures, graphs and tables have been sourced from Asian Development Outlook – World Economic Forum.
Informative article no doubt !!!
Great article !!!!