RHODE ISLAND WILDFIRES. A RAGING CAULDRON

On July 22, 2023, Greek island of Rhodes experienced a devastating wildfire that swept across the nation, causing chaos and destruction. Situation escalated as fires continued to rage, compelling authorities to evacuate people from affected areas. One such incident occurred on the picturesque island of Corfu, where tourists and locals were forced to flee a beach in a desperate bid for safety.

The wildfires on Rhodes had been raging for days and despite best efforts they remained uncontrolled. This uncontrollable blaze prompted the evacuation of around 19,000 people over the weekend as the fire encroached on coastal resorts along the island's southeastern coast.

Rhodes and Corfu, renowned for their stunning landscapes and warm Mediterranean charm, are among Greece's top destinations, attracting tourists primarily from Britain and Germany.

While wildfires are not uncommon in Greece during the summer months, the severity and frequency of such incidents have increased due to climate change. Southern Europe has experienced more extreme heatwaves, exacerbating fire risks and amplifying the challenges faced by firefighters and rescue teams. Temperatures had soared above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in many parts of Greece in days to the fire and forecasts indicated that the scorching weather would persist.

Well, well, well ! Wildfires are traumatic and it is in the know of everyone around that the destructions are savage and quite recently it has become a regular feature across the globe. So let us come to the obvious question :

Why wildfires are happening and how(?)

Consider this. Around the same time Rhodes Island was burning there were heavy rains triggering floods in California. Heavy rains in the Northeastern United States in mid-July brought storm impacts in several states including New York, Vermont, Massachusetts and Connecticut. Vermont received two months of rain in just a few days !!

Let us go to the map below.

Greece and the United States are placed on two opposite sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

So, what’s the big deal ?

The answer to the question is: Dipoles are created in the Atlantic Ocean !!

What is an Ocean Dipole(?). Due to sudden changes in the Thermohaline Circulation; one part of the Ocean water gets heated as the other part cools off. Hence a di-pole is created. When it is created one part which has become warm causes intense rains, floods, cyclones et al and the cooler part becomes excessively dry and heated. These dry parts in summers are tantamount to forest fires and wildfires.

I am giving you another example. Flooding and landslides in East Africa have killed dozens of people and forced hundreds of thousands to abandon their homes. Meanwhile, many miles away in Australia, a period of hot, dry weather has led to a spate of bushfires.

Both weather events have been linked to higher-than-usual temperature differences between the two sides of the Indian Ocean.

There are other reasons of wildfires though, but they are dwarfed in scale and would need a Himalayan notoriety to reach Rhode Island proportions !!

As shown in the demonstration above heavy downpours have devastated parts of East Africa, with the Horn of Africa seeing up to 300% above average rainfall.

Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia and South Sudan have been particularly badly affected, with flash floods and landslides hitting communities across the region.

And, Australia, has a spate of bushfires. Weird things happening !! But why(?).

This is happening because of Indian Ocean Dipole. What is (IOD)?. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the difference in sea surface temperature between two areas (or poles, hence dipole) – a western pole in the Arabian Sea (western Indian Ocean) and an eastern pole in the eastern Indian Ocean south of Indonesia. During a positive phase warm waters are pushed to the Western part of the Indian Ocean, while cold deep waters are brought up to the surface in the Eastern Indian Ocean. This pattern is reversed in the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole.

Bury yourself in the excellent book Indian Ocean Dipoles, Sea Surface Temperatures and Seasonal Rainfall by Gyan Prakash Singh to know more about ocean dipoles.

The Book. Over the past several decades South Asian continents have found several droughts and floods. The book delves into exhaustive investigations of rainfall variability over South Asian Region and gives a good account of basic understanding of climate variability. In recent decade the sea surface temperature of all major oceans has warming trend which leaves its impact on rainfall and circulations. Thus, a dynamic of anomalous change is created leading to intense rains and catastrophic dry weathers !

Andrew Watkins, head of an Australian forecast bureau said the dipole was crucial to understanding the heatwave. The key culprit of our current and expected conditions is one of the strongest positive Indian Ocean dipole events on record, he says. A positive IOD means we have cooler than average water pooling off Indonesia, and this means we see less rain-bearing weather systems, and warmer than average temperatures for large parts of the country.

Picture below depicts two diametrically opposite weather conditions borne out of Indian Ocean dipoles. So, what happened in Greece Rhode Island for an Atlantic Ocean dipole is replicated in Australia through Indian Ocean dipole. Fascinating !!

The Future. Extreme climate and weather events caused by the dipole are predicted to become more common in the future as greenhouse gas emissions increase.

In a 2014 study published in Nature, scientists in Australia, India, China and Japan modelled the effects of CO2 on extreme Indian Ocean dipoles, such as those in 1961, 1994 and 1997. Assuming emissions continue to go up, they projected that the frequency of extreme positive dipole events would increase this century from one every 17.3 years to one every 6.3 years.

The countries in the west of the Indian Ocean, on the African coast, are going to see much, much more flooding and heavy rainfall relating to these events, say ocean researchers. We are going to get more damaging impacts on crops and on infrastructure and flooding.

On the other hand, in the east of the Indian Ocean, islands on the west side of Indonesia are going to see a greater chance of drought and reduced rainfall.

How to predict Indian Ocean Dipoles. Technology to the Fore.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a mode of climate variability observed in the Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature anomalies with one pole off Sumatra and the other pole near East Africa. An IOD event starts sometime in May-June, peaks in September-October and ends in November. Through atmospheric teleconnections, it affects the climate of many parts of the world, especially that of East Africa, Australia, India, Japan, and Europe. Owing to its large impacts, previous studies have addressed the predictability of the IOD using state of the art coupled climate models.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Awakened to such large-scale damages, technology has come to predict the IOD using machine learning techniques, in particular artificial neural networks (ANNs). The IOD forecasts are generated for May to November from February-April conditions. The attributes for the ANNs are derived from sea surface temperature, 850 hPa (hectoPascals - Earth’s atmospheric pressure on the surface, standard pressure at sea level is about 1013 hPa) and 200 hPa geopotential height anomalies, using a correlation analysis for the period 1949–2018. An ensemble of ANN forecasts is generated using 500 samples with replacement using jackknife approach. The ensemble mean of the IOD forecasts indicate the machine learning based ANN models to be capable of forecasting the IOD index well in advance with excellent skills. The forecast skills are much superior to the skills obtained from the persistence forecasts that one would guess from the observed data. The ANN models also perform far better than the models of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) with higher correlation coefficients and lower root mean square errors (RMSE) for all the target months of May-November. Please visit www.cheekychatur.com and read the blog The Rise of Artificial Intelligence. How it looks 100 Years From Now for an engrossing detail on Artificial Neural Networks. Please go to the first article and tap See All to view.

How to predict Forest fires. Technology to the Fore.

Geneva, Switzerland, 16 January 2023 : A dramatic rise in the frequency and severity of wildfires is undermining efforts to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in combating climate change. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 30% of the world’s population is exposed to deadly heatwaves on more than 20 days a year.

The World Economic Forum launched the FireAId initiative to address the wildfire crisis in January 2022. Successfully piloted by Koc Holding in the South Aegean and West Mediterranean region of Türkiye in 2022, this wildfire risk mapping and logistic planning project improved wildfire prediction by combining static and meteorological datasets and reduced both response time and risk to firefighters. Due to its success, the approach is being scaled for wider use.

During this difficult period of growing fire seasons and climate change, we are committed to continuing and strengthening this global engagement. We hope this report will inspire you to join these efforts, which can address the key drivers of catastrophic fires, increase the pace and scale of forest management and improve the resilience of increasingly threatened communities globally, said Jeremy Jurgens, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning. This report urges the increased use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in predicting and directing responses to wildfires and managing forests. It follows the launch of the Global Risks Report 2023, which highlights failure to mitigate and adapt to climate change, natural disasters and extreme weather events, and biodiversity loss and environmental degradation among the top risks faced by societies.

Do not worry. We are doing everything possible for you to lead a quality life !!