HEY MALDIVES, ARE YOU KIDDING?

It was a muddy afternoon of November 1988 in Maldives. People from Maldivian National Security informed President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom that mercenaries propelled by businessman Abdullah Luthufi had invaded the Presidential Palace for a coup. Gayoom and Family were quickly escorted to safety.

About 80 armed mercenaries landed in the capital Male before dawn aboard speedboats from a hijacked Sri Lankan freighter. Disguised as visitors, a similar number had already infiltrated Male earlier. The mercenaries quickly gained control of the capital, including the major government buildings, airport, port, television and radio stations.

Operation Cactus. President Gayoom requested military intervention from Sri Lanka and Pakistan but both denied any help, citing a lack of military capabilities, then Singapore declined citing the same reasons. After that, he contacted the United States but was told that it would take forces 2–3 days to reach the Maldives from their nearest military base in Diego Garcia, 1000 km away. The president then contacted the United Kingdom, which advised them to seek assistance from India. Following this, when Gayoom contacted the Indian government for assistance, India swiftly accepted their request and within 16 hours of the SOS, India was ready to commence their operation with Operation Cactus  !!

That was India saving Maldives. The operation started on the night of 3 November 1988. The Indian Army paratroopers arrived on Hulhule in nine hours after the appeal from President Gayoom and immediately secured the airfield, crossed over to Male using commandeered boats and rescued President Gayoom.

Troopers eventually restored control of the capital to President Gayoom’s government within hours. Some of the mercenaries fled towards Sri Lanka in a hijacked freighter. Those unable to reach the ship in time were quickly rounded up and handed over to the Maldives government.

And the accolades(!). India received international praise for the operation. US President Ronald Reagan expressed his appreciation for India's action, calling it a valuable contribution to regional stability. British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher reportedly commented - Thank God for India, President Gayoom's government has been saved. 

The new era begins. In November 2023 voters in the Indian Ocean archipelago of Maldives elected Mohamed Muizzu as the country’s president.

Muizzu, candidate for the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), roundly defeated incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). Muizzu is widely seen as sympathetic to China’s interests in the country, and less favourably disposed towards India, who has been Maldives’s traditional security and economic partner for years.

The accidental President(!). Moizzu was an unlikely candidate for the presidency after serving as construction minister in the government of his mentor Abdulla Yameen. But Yameen’s jailing on corruption charges - which his party says were politically motivated - saw Muizzu pitchforking to lead the party as his proxy in an election where the strategically placed country’s ties with China and India were on the ballot.

Yameen the villain. It was Yameen’s turn towards Beijing that first alarmed New Delhi. India shares concerns with the United States and its allies about China’s growing assertiveness in the Indian Ocean. And why not !

As minister under Yameen, Muizzu oversaw several Chinese - funded infrastructure projects in the country of less than one million people, including a USD 200 million bridge linking the capital with the archipelago’s main airport. The stage was set for the onslaught to commence !!

Muizzu told Chinese Communist Party officials during an online meeting last year that his party’s return to office would expand the strong ties between the two countries. It goes without saying that Muizzu’s election success hinged on a sustained campaign against India’s outsized political and economic clout in the Maldives. But the clout was friendly, please note, you unfriendly ignorants.

Let us now spread our eyes on why China has fallen head over heels for Maldives (?). The Maldives sits in a strategically vital position in the middle of the Indian Ocean, astride one of the world’s busiest east-west shipping lanes. China has interests in those shipping lanes. The details are striking !

If you can see the above infograph China imports huge amounts of crude oil from countries across the world. The top six countries alone export around USD 151 billion worth of oil. As the blue and black lines in the topmost map show the passage of oil transportation encumbers practically the whole of globe and the involvement of China is almost in every country that matters except USA, Australia and India – this can be seen in the second map. Let us look at the Pakistan angle now.

Obviously, the oil routes involve circumventing India waters, namely the Indian Ocean. The routes also touch Africa and Sri Lanka. New Delhi gathers that China in order to avoid treading India waters - it certainly looks down upon India as less economically and militarily strong – and in a major shift, has touched Pakistan to reach out an alternate route to Beijing which reduces the travel path to a great degree and also induces an avenue to placate Islamabad to rebuild business policies ending up with a win-win situation for China and for Pakistan! What a folly.

Today, the much-hyped China - Pakistan Belt Road Initiative has now become a joke(!). Since Pakistan China Belt Road Initiative has fallen flat (the ex-Pakistan premier Imran Khan has closed down the Kashgar – Gwadar initiatives from China amid widespread misappropriation of funds – it is believed that one of the Pakistani Generals had opened a series of food chains across USA with that fund pushing Pakistan into a hopeless debt trap) it is curtains now for Pakistan. No wonder Imran Khan is facing so much ridicule in Islamabad.

Please visit www.cheekychatur.com for in-depth analysis on Belt Road Initiative in Will Pakistan Lease part of POK to China. Pakistan was coaxed by China to build a transport line from Gwadar through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) to China’s north-west Kashgar (illustration above) to avoid the sea route, which is long and passes through India.  

It was the failure of BRI that pushed China into present scheme of things.  The failure of the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) forced China to think of other alternatives, one was to grab land in Maldives. The nation constitutes a large number of archipelagos and Beijing believes a foothold in a couple of them would facilitate maritime snoop !! After the Pakistan card now China plays the Maldives card !!

Picture above shows a group of two archipelagos with a number of atolls; for example, the Raa atoll on the left and Alifu Alfiu atoll on the right in addition to other atolls. There are 1192 islands in the Maldives and the country is naturally divided into 26 atolls or chain of islands.

A couple of atolls is all China needs to spy over India !!

But you cannot deny that India had done enough for this tiny nation. Be it India's prompt assistance during the 1988 coup or aid during natural disasters, the country has reinforced its credentials of being the first responder for the Maldives in times of crisis.

Hence Maldives, you Brutus, your folly is unpardonable and you must succumb to your sins !!

Munch through the data and you will find that trade between India and Maldives has increased by four times since 2014. In 2022 the total trade volume was USD 501.82 million compared to USD 173.50 million in 2014. Quite a jump that !

You have no business to belittle India. Since the advent of Muizzu, the close and cordial ties between India and the Maldives have nosedived following derogatory social media posts by a number of Maldivian ministers against our PM following his visit to Lakshadweep. While the Maldives has attempted to control the damage by suspending three deputy ministers, the relations between the countries were already in choppy waters following Muizzu adopting a softer tone towards China.

Muizzu does not understand that China has set its eyes to milk Maldivian economy. When Muizzu visited China, several people warned him about Beijing's debt-trap policy. Male has taken massive loans from China - the China Development Bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and the Export-Import Bank of China hold over 60 per cent of Maldives' sovereign debt, according to a report by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF).

My question to Maldivian Ministers : Are you a kid, gentlemen ? Cannot see the storm coming ?

A month before Muizzu took over as President, the World Bank said growing external and fiscal vulnerabilities were posing risks to the Maldivian economy, particularly if Male continues to borrow at high costs. It said by 2026, the USD 5.4 billion Maldivian economy will have to service a record USD 1.07 billion in external debt. 

Asia Nikkei reported that the bank's latest assessment added to existing concerns about Male's obligation to spend an average of USD 300 million a year to service foreign debt from 2022 to 2024. Despite expectations of reduced deficits, Maldives’ total debt is set to remain high at over 115% of GDP.

Cry of a Maldivian. Dear President Muizzu, as you walk on thin ice it is catastrophe and more catastrophe for you. Trust me, when I say you should not be here because you do not fully deserve this, we cannot wait to watch you play and trip over, do not forget to give a Dorian smile out there because that is all the nation expects from you waiting silently for the catastrophe to happen. Being the leader of a predominantly Muslim nation you should be aware of how China has been treating Uighur Muslims. The abominable brutality ! There is no respite from this. Amla Clooney is not going to save you from this imbroglio. (Hollywood superstar George Clooney’s wife Amla has been hired by Muizzu to see him through troubled waters of Uighur).

Another Maldivian says. While you are eyeing the economic benefits that China has to offer you must remember the debt trap Sri-Lanka is facing and you must realise that this trap is also coming at you thick and fast !!  You need to choose your allies wisely, understand Mr. President ?

When John was having a cup of tea at a restaurant in Male, he had to say this to his old friend Shehroz – of Maldives he tells – It is a story I know well and I know what your child had been through. The pride of you must have been in your heart completely wrenched seeing your 20 - year son nudging to school blankly without a dream.

People of Maldives have forgotten to live a dream. Because there is no dream.

This is unfathomable, incomparable.

Disclaimer : The names John and Shehroz are imaginary and do not resemble any person(s) dead or alive.